Covering University of Colorado sports, mostly basketball, since 2010

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

2013 Washington Basketball Preview

OK, so the season is in danger.  There's no denying that a 1-3 in-conference record, with a difficult road trip to The Evergreen State on the table, has a better chance of turning into 1-5 than 3-3.  A 1-5 start to Pac-12 play, even considering the bloat of home dates remaining, would be a disaster.

Staring that danger in the face, BuffNation is starting to lose it.  Just Monday I saw articles talking about team-only meetings, and prescribed changes to the rotation.  (If more Xavier Talton is all this team needs, I'll eat my hat... again)

We've gone Farrell on everyone:
 
(Imagine Mike Bohn: "There will be no refunds! Your refund will be escaping this deathtrap with your life!")

The good news is that the team is a road win this evening away from breathing life back into the season.  It won't be easy, however, as the team pays a visit to one of the league's best this evening.

It's late-night with Coach Boyle and crew.  Tip off from Alaska Airlines Arena in Seattle is set for 9:30pm MT.  If you can stay awake long enough, Pac-12 Network has the video, with Mark Johnson and the radio coverage on 850 KOA.

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 

In a matchup of the eventual Pac-12 regular season champ against the eventual Pac-12 tournament champ, CU rolled to a surprisingly easy 87-69 victory.  Everything seemed to go right for the Buffs that evening, with five players ending up in double figures, and the bench ending up emptied against a pretty decent Washington team.  Maybe the Huskies had a case of the flu, or something.

Just look at some of the stuff they were able to pull off that night:


Why, yes, that was Carlon Brown using the bank to spark a layup at the 1:20 mark.  You mean you'd never seen that before?  Why, me neither...

That was CU's first Pac-12 game against a real Pac-12 opponent (Utah didn't count), and the blowout set the tone for a terrific start to the inaugural campaign.  The Buffs would be hard pressed to top that bravura performance this evening, even if the game was being played in Boulder.


Opponent's season so far - 

If you had asked me only two weeks ago, I'd have been ready to spin the tale of a spiraling Washington squad.  Barely scraping together eight wins out of 13 non-conference games, the Huskies were entering conference play stuck in a tailspin.  Eye-raising home losses to Nevada and, *gulp*, Albany had even the most ardent UW supporters pawing the dirt in embarrassment, and they seemed doomed for a middle-table finish... or worse.
Really?  Albany?
Then, as if with a flick of a switch, they became a force to be reckoned with.  A blistering series of three-straight road wins opened their Pac-12 slate, marking, by far, the most impressive open of any team in the conference.  Hell, it's the first time the program has won their first three road conference games since 1912; we're talking serious history from a group thought to be dead in the water at the start of the month.

The most impressive notch on their belt was their last: a 65-60 win at Stanford.  C.J. Wilcox carried the Huskies to the finish line, scoring 13 of the team's final 15 points to help secure victory.  That was the win that got everyone talking, and left detractors (including yours truly) stunned into silence.  The Huskies seem to be back from wherever they wandered off to in a drunken haze.
Wilcox has looked brilliant in Pac-12 play.  From: the AP
Offensively, they're an efficient bunch, scoring 1.08ppp.  That's fueled mostly by strong offensive rebounding numbers (38.3%), which give them enough second looks to make up for average shooting numbers.  They're still getting used to a new offensive system, but nearly 70 points per game despite playing relatively slowly tells me they're adjusting just fine.

On the defensive end, they rarely force turnovers, possessing one of the nation's worse steal rates (6.8%).  If CU can't take care of the basketball against these guys, then there's a serious problem.  On the flip side, they do a good job keeping good shooters off the charity stripe, as opponents only score 16% of their points from the free throw line.


Coaching - 


Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar is the dean of the Pac-12 coaching fraternity, and seems intrenched in Seattle.  He's won some version of the Pac-12 title in each of the last four seasons, and has built the Huskies into one of the premier West Coast programs.  It seems like a no-brainer that Romar is a Husky for life.
I love this picture of coach Romar, and will use it till the day he retires.
Yet, for some odd reason, ESPN's Andy Katz decided to throw his name into the ring for the recently vacated USC job.  Maybe Katz has some inside information he's declining to share, but I have a hard time imagining why Romar, who has run the Huskies for 11 years, would up and leave his alma mater now.  He's got that sexy new-ish arena, recruiting cachet, and what amounts to tenure.  It just strikes me as Katz pulling names out of his ass; Romar's not going anywhere

Speaking of recruiting cachet, after spiking the 2012 recruiting class by failing to keep JuCo transfer Mark McLaughlin on campus, Romar is hunting big game by going after highly sought power forward Aaron Gordon.  Rated the #6 overall senior recruit in the nation by Rivals.com, that would be a huge get for a program.  If Gordon lands, the Huskies could be on their way back to top-15 status.


Star Players - 

The headliner in Seattle is shooting guard C.J. Wilcox.  On a team that lost much of it's talent to the NBA after last season (Terrance Ross and Tony Wroten), it was imperative that the 6-5 junior increase his load.  To his credit, the reigning Pac-12 player of the week did just that, upping his averages to 19/5, while posting strong shooting numbers (.473/.408/.800).  When push comes to shove, he's the Husky taking the key shots, evidenced by his brilliant performance against Stanford last weekend.  Surprisingly enough, he's leading the team in blocks with 1.4 per game.  A shockingly high rate from a two-guard.

Big seven-footer Aziz N'Diaye patrols the paint.  After a frustratingly slow development period, the Senegal native may finally be making the most of his potential int his, his senior season.  He's averaging 11/9 each night while leading the conference with near 65% shooting from the floor.  While CU handled him with ease last season (holding him to a 2/2 night) I would expect a much different kind of performance from the husky Husky.
Big Aziz is capitalizing on his final run in college.
After missing all of last year with a foot injury, versatile senior wing Scott Suggs is back on the court for Washington, adding a much needed 12 points per game to the Husky cause.  That foot is still giving him trouble, but the strong defender seems to have risen above, and is using his 6-6 frame to make outside shooters uncomfortable.  He shoots 86% from the line, and is essentially the last person you want to foul.

For a senior point guard, Abdul Gaddy has been having some serious trouble with turnovers (3.1 per game).  As a result, he's posted his lowest ORating since his freshman campaign.  The drop probably stems from the creative pressure put on his shoulders after the departure of Ross and Wroten.
Gaddy's turnover issues this year have been a surprise.
Rounding out the starting five, sophomore power forward Desmond Simmons is a strong rebounder who compliments N'Diaye well.


Prediciton - 

Washington is only 6-3 at home this season, and they haven't been enjoying the big home crowds they're used to.  While they've been playing well recently, I think the door is still ajar on a road upset.  Let me paint a picture where the Buffs carry-over the grit and determination from the UCLA game's waning moments, and use it to take advantage of the inconsistent Huskies.  The Buffs get aggressive in transition, play smart in the half-court, and rebound well.  While it doesn't look like the "Showtime" performance from last year, CU finds the tape of last year's win over UW, and goes to school on the creativity shown in that game.

I'm calling for an upset as much for my sanity as anything else.  The Buffs need it, and I think the basketball gods will be in a complying mood this evening.

CU 73 - UW 68

GO BUFFS!  PROVE ME RIGHT, AND BEAT THE HUSKIES!

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