Oregon State Basketball Preview #1: #YouCantWinAtAltitude

Ah, the sweet confines of the CEC.  After a up-and-down trip to Los Angeles, the Buffs return to the Front Range, ready to defend the best home court advantage in the West.  What you got for me, Ozzie?

Mmmmm, that's some good metal ballad'n right there.

We all know the Buffs need to make their hay at home to augment suspect performances on the road.  While the path to a league title may be washed out at this point, a top-4 finish and a second consecutive 20-win season are readily attainable goals.  The key to achieving them is sweeping, or coming damn close to, the conference slate at altitude (Utah included).

Take care of business at home, and the rest will work itself out.

--

OK, so it's supposed to snow tonight.  Yes, that does make getting to and from the CEC a pain in the ass.  You know what: NO EXCUSES, PLAY LIKE A CHAMPION!

There is no reason that those of Buff Nation in the Denver-Boulder area shouldn't be on campus tonight, cheering on the Buffs.  The team needs that crowd to be as good as it's been to sweep the Oregon schools aside, and that effort starts tonight.  We've created a reputation for the best home-court advantage in the West, now it's time to cement it.  Rain/sleet/snow, whatever, nothing can stop the CEC from foaming over.  GET YOUR ASS TO THE KEG!

Tip-off is set for 7pm.  If you are afraid of snow, and don't want to deal with Boulder traffic while fighting your chionophobia (look it up), then you're saddled with the 760AM broadcast and the soothing sounds of Mark Johnson.  No TV and no beer make Homer something, something...

Click below for the preview...


When last we met - 


Last season, as part of the Big XII/Pac-10 Hardwood Challenge, the Buffs got an early taste of the Beavers (pun intended?), waxing Oregon State in Boulder by 26 points.  The 83-57 final didn't even do the game justice, as the Buffs barely had to break a sweat against their future conference brothers.  Four Buffs finished in double figures, with Levi Knutson leading the way with 22 points, buoyed by 6-8 shooting from behind the arc.

Levi lead the way last season, as the Buffs crushed the hapless Beavers in Boulder.  From: CUBuffs.com

I had assumed after that game that Beavers Coach Craig Robinson wouldn't last to see a rematch this season.    Not only had the Buffs won big that night, but they had flat out embarrassed the Beavers.

Up to that point, Robinson's tenure in Corvallis had been uneventful, and OSU was sitting at 3-4, with a record boasting of losses to Utah Valley, Texas Southern, and Seattle.  Solidifying my conviction that he was about to be fired, the Beavers would close out the season by going 1-7 in conference play.

Yet, Robinson survived the off-season, and has the Beavers firing on all offensive cylinders this year.  This current incarnation of Oregon St seems to be far removed from that debacle 14 months ago.


Opponents season so far - 


The Beavers are built on a highly efficient offense.  Ranked in the top-30 of Kenpom's adjusted efficiency rankings, their 'O' leads the Pac-12 in raw stats such as scoring (4th in the nation, btw), raw FG%, assists (7th in the nation), and steals.  Playing fast, and living with the fast-break, this crew is no joke with the ball in their hands.

That offense had propelled them to some high expectations headed into conference play.  Going 10-2 through their non-con slate, many had them listed as being capable of competing for the league crown.

Early wins, like this one over UT, had hopes high in Corvallis.

Then, the down Pac-12 got their hands on them.

Dropping five of their first six conference games, the Beavers were staggered.  The losing run was carried through a frustrating run of four overtimes in two losses against Stanford and Arizona.  The resulting hangover even allowed them to lose at the lowly Arizona State Sun Devils.

Overtime thrillers cost Oregon State a shot at the top-quarter of the conference.

While they have rebounded, sweeping the SoCal schools in Corvallis before handling the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, they're still technically in 9th place, sitting with a disappointing 4-5 record in conference play.

Recent wins have righted the ship.

Part of this is due to some atrocious defense in conference play.  While they do create a ton of turnovers, they have the worst in-conference field goal defense, allowing just a hair under 50% shooting from the field through nine games.  That's worse than bottom-dwellers like USC, WSU, and Utah.  The lesson, as always, is that your offense alone cannot win you ballgames.

Still, they have the potential to poke their heads above water heading in to the conference tournament.  With a seemingly guaranteed win at Utah before a home set with the Washingtons, .500 or higher is more than possible.  Given a good spot in the Pac-12 tournament, they could be a tough out if their offense catches a team short in LA.


Coaching - 


You may have heard of Coach Craig Robinson's brother-in-law.  He's only the most powerful man on the planet.  That little tidbit is the first thing most people learn about Coach Robinson.

That's a hell of a recruiting pitch, having the commander-in-chief's number on your cell phone.

The Chicago native (South Side!) is rather fresh to the coaching game, having only six years ago gotten his first head coaching gig at Brown.  There he lead the Bears to a school record 19 wins in his second season, before bolting to Corvalis and the struggling Beavers.

In only his first season at Oregon St, back in '09, Coach Robinson brought home a CBI championship (3rd-tier post-season tournament).  This lead some to raise their expectations for the typically bottom-dwelling Beaver program. However, prior to this season, Coach Robinson had yet to lead Oregon St to a winning record.

Coach Robinson also possesses good coach face.

With OSU now sitting seven games over .500, he may finally have what he needs to get the Beavers over the hump, and into a tournament someone, outside of a lonely circle of basketball junkies, has heard of.






Star Players - 


The undisputed star of the '11-'12 Beavers squad is junior Jared Cunningham.  The 6-4 guard out of Oakland provides 18/4/3 every night, while wrecking havoc with nearly three steals per contest.  Blazingly quick, he does a great job drawing contact and getting to the line.  Cunningham is coming in off of a 27-point effort against in-state rival Oregon, where he shot 12-15 from the stripe.

Cunningham is a dynamic talent.

Should Cunningham stay at OSU for his senior season, I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the pre-season  lists as conference player of the year.

Supporting Cunningham is 5-9 mighty-mite Ahmad Starks.  The sophomore from Chicago (!) provides 14 points per contest, while keeping pace with Cunningham in both assists and steals.  He's taken an obscene 140 three point attempts on the year, so someone may want to guard him out on the perimeter.  Starks is also a lights-out free throw shooter, knocking down 33-36 attempts on the year.  He may not get to the line much, shooting about as often as Nate Tomlinson, but when he does, it's a sure thing.

Starks makes a good pairing with the other stars on offense.

The back-court duo of Cunningham and Starks has been in double figures in every conference game so far this year.  They're one of the best guard pairings in the league.

The front line is held down by Devon Collier and Joe Burton.  Collier, a 6-7 sophomore out of the Bronx, is an incredibly efficient player, holding a top-20 efficiency rating.  He provides 13/5 per night, and compliments Cunningham very well.  While he gets to the line often, he can struggle with the freebies, shooting only 62% from the stripe.  Burton, also 6-7, drops 9/6 per night

Collier and Cunningham play off each other very well.

Freshman Eric Moreland is the Beavers version of Andre Roberson.  The 6-10 kid out of Texas has the 4th best defensive rebound rate in the country, and manages to effect plenty of shots.  Provided with less than 20 minutes per night, he could be scary good on the block in years to come.

Moreland is the next great rebounding star.

Prediction - 


Defense, defense, defense; this game will come down to whose defense plays to form.  If they Buffs can hold the potent Beaver defense down towards opponent averages, then CU should have a great chance to win.  Through five home games so far in conference play, only one team has managed to shoot above 40%.  If OSU is down near that mark, the Buffs should win.

If that number ticks up toward 50%, and the Beavers are causing their typical amount of turnovers, the Buffs could struggle to keep up.

Home cooking is how the Buffs' bread is buttered, and I have no doubt that particular trend will continue.  The defense swarms over the Beavers, and OSU runs themselves out of gas half-way through the final frame.

CU 81 - OSU 73

GO BUFFS!  BEAT THE BEAVERS!