NIT game #2 preview: Cal

With the move to the Pac-12 on the quickly approaching horizon, there's no time like the present to start getting to know our future conference brethren.  Enter the California Golden Bears with a particularly golden opportunity to taste what lies in store for CU in the new conference.  I'm really excited to see how the Buffs match up against the Bears.  It's second-tier programs like Cal that CU will need to leap-frog if they intend to consistently land in the upper-third of the conference.  Additionally, with CSU and St. Mary's falling in their first round games this week, this date with Cal features the only "name" competition left in CU's "region."

The Buffs will be looking a head to their new conference with their game against Cal this evening.  From: the BDC

The Buffs come in fresh off of their glorified scrimmage against Texas Southern.  Over 60% shooting and more than 50 combined points from Alec and Cory seem nice, but the whole team will need a jump-start in focus and intensity in order to get past Cal this evening.  Cal comes in off of a difficult home win over Ole Miss in their first-round game.  Cal rode the hot hand and 25 points of star guard Jorge Gutierrez to squeak past the Rebels 77-74.

Tip-off is set for 7:30, and the game can be seen on ESPNU (Hey, look!  Television!).  I again beseech all members of Buff Nation to make every effort to attend tonight's game.  We did a decent job Wednesday night, but the Buffs need our help again.  Let's fill the CEC!

Click below for my preview
Opponents season so far - The young Bears have been on a roller-coaster ride of a season.  Twice in conference play they ran off four straight victories.  Unfortunately for them those two runs bookended a 4-game string of losses and followed a 2-4 start to the conference season.  They ended up with a respectable 10-8 record in the final season of the Pac-10, but they struggled to a 2-6 record against the other top teams in the conference.

Cal found themselves in plenty of close games this season, like a triple-overtime loss to Arizona last month.

I would think a large part of their inconsistency could be chalked up to their youth.  The current roster lists only one senior, and the program should be a popular pick to challenge for the league title. 

Offensively, the Bears find themselves in the top 60 of Kenpom's most efficient offenses, and most efficient in the Pac-10.  They do this mostly from inside the arc, as they are last in the Pac-10 in 3-point distribution (21%), and second to last in 3's made.  They make their money at the line, leading the conference in free throws attempted, and second in makes.

Defensively they're a little porous, giving up almost 72 points per game, good enough for 9th in the Pac-10.  They allowed a league high 1.1 points per possession during conference play, and had a difficult time stopping teams from dictating the pace of play.  They also allow a rather high 36% shooting from behind the arc.




Coaching - Cal coach mike Montgomery is one of the biggest names in West Coast hoops.  During an 18-year stint with Stanford, he built the program into one of the power names in the country.  From '99-'04 his Cardinal teams won or shared the conference title 4 times, and won at least one game in the Tournament in each of his final 10 season in Palo Alto.  He reached a Final Four, 2 elite eights, and 3 sweet sixteens during those years.

Mike Montgomery is a hell of a coach, and should continue to do well at Cal.

Following his successful time at Stanford, Coach Montgomery bolted for the NBA and the Golden State Warriors.   He only lasted 2 seasons, and was mostly noneffective.  Returning to his Pac-10 roots, he signed on with Cal 3 years ago, and immediately returned to his winning ways.  Last season he took the Bears to a Pac-10 title, and a second-round appearance in the Tournament.

The guy knows how to build a strong program, and consistently fields quality teams.  With him at the helm, I expect great things from Cal.




Key Players - This is a rather young group that features only one senior and five freshmen.  That lone senior is 6-7 center Markhuri Sanders-Frison.  At 265 pounds, Markhuri is a big boy, and he can push smaller teams around inside.  His season highlights include a 23/11 night against USC, and a 10/12 double-double against Kansas.  While he may not have the height that more elite centers possess, he's big enough to cause CU problems in the paint.   (I'm an idiot.  He separated a shoulder and will miss tonight's game.)

Overall, the Bears are lead by 6-3 junior guard Jorge Gutierrez.  The Mexico native leads the team in points per game, assists and steals.  He's crazy versatile, and essentially runs the show.  He can be silenced by a determined defensive team (USC held him to only 4 points in the Pac-10 tournament), but he can be very explosive as he averaged 22 points/game in the month of February.

Gitierrez is a pretty good guard, who can light it up if you aren't paying attention.

Other key players include 6-8 junior forward Harper Kamp, who had a 33/10 night against Arizona this year, and 6-4 freshman guard Allen Crabbe, who has had 4 straight games of over 20 points and rebounds very well for a guard.




Prediction - Assuming CU can focus and play with the intensity they showed down the stretch in Big XII play, I like CU's chances to advance to the NIT's elite eight.  This young Cal team has been known to give up points in bunches, and the duo of Alec and Cory are as hot as any in the nation right now.  The key will be how the Buffs manage the Bears size in the paint.  If they can hold Sanders-Frison near his average, CU should win.   (With Sanders-Frison out, CU should have no problem.)

CU 87 - Cal 79

GO BUFFS!